The launch of the iPad in the UK, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain and Switzerland may have led to frenzied crowd queuing, but analysts say the price premium for 3G connectivity will dampen ardour for that branch …

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Sean Bolger’s broadband operator Imagine, which is in the process of deploying a €100m 4G WiMax network across Ireland with Intel and Motorola, has hit out at Ireland’s over-reliance on ‘outmoded’ 3G technology.

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Dean Bubley

Ofcom’s just released a huge new report on the current state of the industry, incorporating telecoms, broadcasting and related services. Some interesting statistics:

• Quite a lot of discussion of the resilience of fixed-line comms in the face of the mobile onslaught. Rather than direct fixed-mobile substitution, it appears that the UK sees more mobile-initiated incremental use of voice. Fixed minutes have dropped about 17bn minutes in total over 6 years, but mobile call volumes have risen by 38bn minutes. The UK outbound call total is still around 60/40 fixed:mobile, and 88% of homes still have a fixed line.
• The proportion of mobile-only households has been pretty static for the past few years, currently at 11%. This is considerably lower than elsewhere in Europe (eg 37% in Italy), and is possibly reflecting the prevalence of ADSL. Most mobile-only users are from lower socioeconomic groups.
• 44% of UK adults use SMS daily, against 36% using the Internet
• More than 100k+ new mobile broadband connections per month in the UK in H1 2008, with the rate of sign-up accelerating. 75% of dongle users are now using their mobile connection at home.
• Nearly half of adults with home broadband use WiFi
• 11% of UK mobile phone owners use the device to connect to the Internet, and 7% use it to send email.
• VoIP usage appears to have fallen from 20% of consumers in late 2006, to 14% in early 2008. However, I suspect that this masks the fact that many instances of VoIP (eg BT’s broadband circuit-replacement service, or corporate IP-PBXs), don’t make it obvious to the user.
• Over two-thirds of mobile broadband users also have fixed-line broadband
• UK mobile subscribers send an average 67 SMS per month (or 82 / month per head, taking account of multiple subs-per-person). MMS use is only 0.37 messages per user per month.
  Slight increase in overall fixed-line subscriptions in 2007 – attributed to business lines.
  Overall UK non-SMS mobile data revenues were flat in 2007 vs 2006 at £1bn. I reckon that’s because the data pre-dates the big rise in mobile dongle sales, and also reflects price pressures on things like ringtones. Ofcom also attributes this to adoption of flatrate data plans vs. pay-per-MB.
• UK prepay mobile ARPU has been flat at £9 / month for the last 4 years. That’s a big issue for operators wanting to sell data services to prepay subs in my view.
• 17% of mobile subscriptions in the UK were on 3G at end-2007, although there’s not much detail on the actual usage of 3G for non-voice applications.
• Overall, UK households allocate 3.3% of total spending to telecom services. That’s been flat since 2003 – ie the slice of the pie isn’t getting any bigger relative to food/rent/entertainment/travel etc.
• 94% of new mobile subscriptions are bundled with handsets.
• 11% of UK adults have >1 SIM card. Among 16-24yo users, this rises to 16%. There’s an estimate that of the second devices in use in the UK, 1m are 3G dongles, 0.7m are BlackBerries or similar, and 8m are genuine “second handsets”. There’s also another 8m “barely active” devices that are used as backups, or legacy numbers that get occasional inbound calls or SMS

Some other interesting key points that are available here:

• Communications industry revenue (based on the elements monitored by Ofcom) increased by 4.0% to £51.2bn in 2007, with telecoms industry revenue the fastest growing component, up 4.1% on the year.
• Mobile telephony (including an estimate for messaging) accounted for 40% of the total time spent using telecoms services, compared to 25% in 2002. However, much of this growth has come about as a result of an increase in the overall number of voice call minutes (from 217 in 2002 to 247 in 2007) rather than because of substitution with fixed voice, which still accounted for 148 billion minutes last year, down only 10% from 165 minutes in 2002.
• The most popular internet activity among older people is ‘communication’ (using email, instant messaging and chat rooms for example); 63% of over-65s say they communicate online, compared to 76% of all adults.
• The majority of children aged 5-7 have access to the internet and most children aged 8-11 have access to a mobile phone. Children are more likely to use the internet for instant messaging than for email.
• Television is particularly important to older people. Sixty-nine per cent of those aged 65-74 say it is the media activity that they would miss most (compared to 52% of all adults) and this rises to 77% among the over 75s. Older people are also more likely to say they miss newspapers and magazines – 10% of 65-74s and 7% of over 75s, compared to 5% of all adults.
• The converged nature of mobile handsets became apparent during 2007, with 41% of mobile phone users claiming to use their handset for taking pictures and 15% uploading photos to their PC. Nearly one in five (17%) also claimed that they used their phone for gaming.

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